The paper describes the actual impact range of Berlin airport in Poland. The range was calculated using the Huff model, which has been described in “Competitive Analysis of Airports”. The measure of airport attractiveness is the volume of passenger transport in 2014 of all Polish and German airports that handle the domestic and international traffic. 22 German airports and 13 Polish airports have been examined. For Berlin airport, the location of Schönefeld Airport (SXF) was selected and the number of passengers of Schönefeld and Tegel airports was totalled. Berlin Brandenburg Airport will be open shortly, which is intended as the main airport in that part of Germany.
Following our last publication of “Competitive Analysis of Airports”, we got requests to calculate the impact range of the airports in Berlin and Prague and other airports near the Polish border. We have decided to meet this request and therefore we would like to present the actual impact range of Berlin airport in Poland.
As you can see from the map, Berlin airports have a large impact range in Germany. In our country, the range of the zone from 50 to 100% covers two provinces, the western part of Zachodniopomorskie Province and the greater part of the Lubuskie Province. The Zachodniopomorskie Province has an operating airport in Goleniów, however, for now its offer is limited, and thus its attractiveness is not sufficient to attract more passengers. On the other hand, the Lubuskie Province has an airport in Babimost, which currently has one connection to Warsaw and therefore attracts very small number of passengers. You can see it perfectly on the map, where contour of 50% probability goes close to the airport in Babimost.
The contour of fifty percent means that the area inside the contour is located in the catchment area of the airport, and there is a high probability that the residents of the area will avail of that airport.
The second map shows the actual impact range of the airports around Berlin, which is much smaller because these airports are less attractive (smaller number of passengers in 2014). The area with 40% probability of selecting the airport in Berlin surrounds the airports in Babimost and Goleniów. The residents of these areas might seriously consider using the airport in Berlin as it has large offer of directions and is relatively close.
The Huff model also enables to calculate the number of inhabitants in a given probability zone and the passengers who are likely to avail of the airport’s offer.
In the Lubuskie Province, there are nearly 550 thousand people living in the impact zone of Berlin airports, of which 56.5% of the population is likely to avail of the airport’s offer. More than 55% inhabitants of Zachodniopomorskie Province, i.e. more than 360 thousand people are likely to use the German airport.
It is worth noting here that statistically one person per year takes a flight. In 2014, the mobility rate fluctuated around the value of 0.65.
| province | number of potential passengers | population | percentage of passengers |
| lubuskie | 310441 | 549398 | 56,51 |
| zachodniopomorskie | 366916 | 665177 | 55,16 |
To sum up, the airport in Berlin has a great potential, and benefits from it. Currently, the airports in western Poland have a small offer of directions. Berlin is easily accessible from Poland, both by road and rail. Many private carriers offer transport services directly to the airport. Polish airports in the western part of Poland have to consider whether they want to fight for passengers or complement the offer of Berlin airport.
Wojciech Brol